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Making the case that Washington, not Michigan, ought to be favored within the CFP championship sport. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
Oddsmakers bought it improper
The Michigan Wolverines are favored over the Washington Huskies by 4.5 factors within the School Soccer Playoff finale. They shouldn’t be.
Each UM and UW are one win away from their first nationwide championship within the CFP period. The Wolverines beat Alabama 27-20 in extra time within the first semifinal, whereas the Huskies knocked off Texas 37-31 within the late sport to earn their spot within the decisive sport.
As each groups look to make historical past, permit us to make the case that Vegas bought it improper, and that Washington ought to enter the matchup because the hunted, not the hunter.
Why Washington over Michigan in CFP?
The sport of soccer is about two fundamentals: scoring factors and stopping opponents.
UW and UM stack up properly in each classes. Washington was tenth in scoring offense, whereas Michigan allowed fewer factors per sport than any FBS program.
6-0 towards top-25 groups
Nonetheless, Washington, regardless of taking part in in an effectively-dissolved Pac-12 convention, is the extra examined of the 2 applications. They’re 6-0 towards top-25 groups and performed their two most spectacular video games of the yr of their final two outings towards No. 5 Oregon and No. 3 Texas.
The Huskies even have the most effective participant within the matchup in QB Michael Penix Jr., the Heisman runner-up.
Washington’s senior gunslinger has 35 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on the season and simply went 29-38 for 430 yards and two TDs towards Texas. He additionally made quite a few throws that would have handed for clips from Tom Brady or Peyton Manning’s spotlight reel.
Though the Wolverines statistically had the most effective protection within the nation and already performed juggernauts comparable to Ohio State and Bama, they haven’t confronted something like Penix and the Washington offense.
In response to Professional Soccer Focus, UW had the third-best pass-blocking unit within the nation. In addition they have a projected top-10 draft choose in huge receiver Rome Odunze who’s gone over 100 yards receiving in 5 straight video games.
It may not be honest to completely disregard Michigan’s protection, however we’ve seen this story earlier than.
Final yr, the Wolverines ranked seventh within the nation with 16.1 factors allowed per sport. They confronted a robust TCU offense within the semifinal and uncharacteristically gave up 51 factors in a loss. The yr earlier than that they ranked eighth with 17.4 factors allowed however gave up 34 to Georgia within the CFP semifinal.
Analyzing the matchup
For the reason that Wolverines don’t have a historic protection, it’s honest to anticipate the Huskies to seek out success transferring the ball. The query then turns into how will UM’s offense deal with the UW protection and the general movement of the sport.
Blake Corum ranked thirty fifth in dashing yards however led all backs with 25 TDs. He additionally scampered for a game-winning 17-yard landing in extra time towards Alabama that solely the elite of the elite may make.
Stopping the run was one in every of Wasington’s greatest points this season. They allowed opponents to choose up 137.1 yards per sport on the bottom (forty first) on 4.4 yards per carry (84th). In the meantime, PFF graded Michigan because the Eleventh-best run-blocking workforce.
The important thing to Michigan knocking off Alabama was its resilience, whether or not it’s their late 75-yard game-tying TD drive or Corum’s particular run. However with Washington’s confirmed capacity to get down the sector in a rush, they’re going to should be even higher.
J.J. McCarthy performed a clear sport and went 17-27 for 221 yards and three TDs on Monday. On the identical time, he missed some throws and didn’t open up the sector vertically the way in which UW will.
Michigan had not confronted a fourth-quarter deficit all season till the Bama sport.
Penix and co. are additionally extremely snug taking part in in tight video games, having gone 8-0 in one-score video games. In the meantime, Michigan had not confronted a fourth-quarter deficit all season till the Bama sport. Their heavy run-first system additionally doesn’t mission properly in high-scoring or one-score video games.
The underside line is that Michigan is perhaps the extra well-rounded workforce, however types make fights. Washington’s explosiveness will heap stress onto a Michigan workforce that isn’t outfitted to match them, and that’s the reason they need to be in pole place.
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