Arsenal received the Group Protect, however that could be a nasty omen for his or her EPL title hopes. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

A tough-fought outcome

Arsenal defeated Manchester Metropolis within the Group Protect 1-1 (4-1) only a week earlier than the beginning of the 2023-24 English Premier League (EPL) season. But when the previous is any indication, that’s not an indication of future success for the Gunners.

have struggled to various levels of their home campaigns

Current winners of the Group Protect, which pits the holders of the FA Cup towards the EPL champs, have struggled to various levels of their home campaigns. Arsenal completed second within the EPL final season and is the betting favourite to take action once more, but it surely should now overcome a harrowing precedent.

Let’s check out the problem that awaits the Gunners, and why their Group Protect win could also be a internet optimistic for his or her closest rivals.

Group Protect winners battle within the EPL

Arsenal was solely 5 factors behind Metropolis within the league final season and sat atop the desk by means of Match Week 33. They equaled their highest-ever win complete (26) and are +500 to win the league, behind solely Metropolis (-140).

Final yr, Liverpool defeated Metropolis 3-1. The Reds then went on to complete fifth and outdoors of Champions League qualification for the primary time for the reason that 2015-16 season. The yr earlier than, Leicester Metropolis beat Man Metropolis 1-0 however ended the yr eighth after ending fifth for 2 straight seasons. 

the one time prior to now six seasons that it didn’t declare the title

Leicester was solely following the footsteps of Arsenal the yr earlier than when it beat Liverpool on penalties however ended the season eighth within the desk. And in 2019, Man Metropolis received the Group Protect however misplaced the league to Liverpool, marking the one time prior to now six seasons that it didn’t declare the title.

2018 is the one latest “regular” yr, one by which Man Metropolis received the Group Protect and the EPL with 98 factors (forward of Liverpool’s 97). In 2017, Arsenal received the Group Protect over then-league champions Chelsea however solely managed a sixth-place end within the league.

2016 Group Protect winners Manchester United additionally completed sixth. That was nonetheless much less devastating than the destiny that met the 2015 winners, Arsenal, who completed second to the league’s largest underdog winner ever, Leicester Metropolis. The Foxes opened the yr at 5000-1 to win the title, however managed to do exactly that.

One more nice upset that got here on the expense of the Group Protect winners occurred in 2011-12 when Manchester Metropolis scored twice in stoppage time towards QPR on the ultimate day of the season to equal Manchester United’s factors complete and win their first-ever league title on objective distinction.

Preventing towards historical past

The Group Protect winner has gone on to win the league title simply as soon as for the reason that 2010-11 marketing campaign. The winners even have a median ending place of simply 4.8 within the league desk over the previous ten seasons, together with a median of seventh over the previous three seasons. 

Arsenal, notably, has received the Group Protect 4 occasions prior to now ten years (5 together with final weekend’s triumph). They’ve completed second, third, sixth, and eighth in these seasons, and (clearly) haven’t been capable of win their first league title since 2003-04.

fashionable historical past will not be on the aspect of the Gunners

Clearly, fashionable historical past will not be on the aspect of the Gunners. However does that imply they’re fully doomed, or are they nonetheless alive with an opportunity at the title in 2023-24?

The Gunners exceeded expectations with their second-place end final season, however in addition they set a really unlucky report by turning into the primary workforce to have as many factors as they did (43) on New Yr’s Day and never win the title that season.

Mikel Arteta has already spent €231.6m ($253.8m) on transfers for Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, and Jurriën Timber this summer season to assist push his squad excessive. Metropolis, in the meantime, misplaced Riyad Mahrez and İlkay Gündoğan however signed Joško Gvardiol and Mateo Kovačić to assist maintain its title ambitions.

In response to FanDuel sportsbook, Liverpool (+650), Manchester United (+900), Chelsea (+1600), and Newcastle (+1800) are the groups subsequent in line for a shot on the title if neither Metropolis nor Arsenal wins the EPL.